Athletic Club 1–3 Sevilla: ten men, 65 percent of the ball, and three subs who scored

The plan

Both sides started 4-2-3-1. The plan lasted eleven minutes: Yuri Berchiche was shown a straight red, Athletic were a man down at home, and four minutes later Oso put Sevilla ahead. What the numbers show from there is unusual. The ten men had 65 percent of the ball, 18 shots to 7, 10 corners to 3 and 1.25 expected goals to Sevilla’s 0.41. They lost 3–1.

Key moment · 46’

Sevilla’s half-time was the match. Three changes at once, Guillén, Ejuke and Isaac Romero for Peque, Sierra and Guridi, and then the two goals that decided it came from two of them. Ejuke at 50’ from Romero’s assist; Romero at 57’ from Oso’s. Oso finished with a goal, an assist and Sevilla’s joint-highest rating; Romero matched him with a goal, an assist and the same rating in forty-five minutes.

Ten men can keep the ball. They cannot keep it and the counter-attack at the same time.— TacticFrame editorial

Key moment · 70’

Athletic’s reply came late and from a defender: Paredes from Yeray Álvarez’s assist at 70’, the eighth of their shots on target. By then Valverde had already used Laporte, Nico Williams and Sannadi at 58’. Eighteen shots with ten men is the story of a side that kept attacking after the red card; three goals from seven Sevilla shots is the story of a side that waited for the spaces that attacking left.

Verdict

• The red card at 11’ did not cost Athletic the ball. It cost them the counter: seven Sevilla shots, three goals, 0.41 xG.
• Sevilla’s three half-time substitutes produced two goals and two assists between them. The change was the tactic.
• Athletic’s 1.25 xG on 18 shots says the chances were there and mostly poor. Volume against a settled back four, again, is not the same as quality.